Sudden jump in the polls? Are you kidding me?
Some news cable outlets have been reporting that McCain is making gains in the polls and tightening the gap between himself and future President Barack Obama. Are you serious? How could that actually happen? Look at McCain’s supporters on the left; could those people get excited and mobilized for any purpose besides fresh jelly-filled pastries?
It is true that Gallup‘s “traditional” polls most recently show a slight tightening: 49% Obama, 47% McCain to be precise. However, the traditional Gallup poll, according to their own website, “factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest…”
If you want to see what is actually going on in this country, you should check out Gallup’s new and improved “expanded” poll. Gallup’s expanded poll (which shows Obama leading McCain 51% to 44%), according to their website, “determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities.” I’m sure you all know that Barack Obama has brought more young adults and minorities out of the woodwork to vote than any other candidate in history. I think we can safely say that the expanded Gallup poll, then, is the more reliable reflection of the actual popular vote outcome.
Still worried that the electoral college could do something different from the popular vote? Well, don’t worry (sorry if that wasn’t suspenseful enough for you, CNN and Fox News). Just take a look at the current electoral college projections:
As you can see (I’m sure you’re not blind or retarded… well, ARE YOU?!?!), there is no risk whatsoever of McCain winning this election. If McCain got every solid and lean state polling for him as well as every single toss-up electoral vote, and got all but two lean votes currently polling for Obama, he’d still only have 268 electoral votes. Obama would then have 270, which is all he needs to win at that point. I don’t think I need to explain that every toss up electoral vote and every electoral vote currently leaning for Barack Obama will not go to John McCain. A shift like that has never happened in the last seven days of an election in electoral history.
The most reliable projection, as of today, is that Obama will win with 360 electoral votes to McCain’s 178. We have not seen a margin of victory that wide in a Presidential election since Clinton and Dole in 1996. In other words, stop listening to the television media. There has been no actual distinguishable tightening in the polls. Barack Obama (pictured at right) is awesome and they are just telling you there has been so they can get higher ratings on election night.
But I’m not worried. I know you’re smarter than them, dear Constant Reader. I will sit in my den alone with my viscious German Shepherds on election night, tripping balls on something and languishing in these very comforting thoguhts and statistics. America is going to be safe, at least for the next few years. Well, it’ll be safe from most any threat except me…